Source: Christ’s College, Cambridge
The universities of Oxford and Cambridge have received ample criticism about their admissions policies in recent years. In particular, journalists and campaigners alike point out that about 40% of Oxbridge places are offered to private school applicants, despite the fact that private schools only educate 7% of pupils in the country. This statistic is repeated over and over again, suggesting that those who attend the likes of Eton College or St Paul’s Girls’ School have a far higher chance of being admitted to Oxbridge than promising state school applicants, all else being equal. But this is where the problem lies. All else is far from equal.
First of all, and this does not make much of a difference, but needs to be made clear at the outset, the 7% figure is wrong. It is higher for the secondary school population, and higher still for those secondary pupils who manage to complete three A-Levels. The share of privately educated UK pupils who pass at least three A-Levels is in fact 13%, not 7%. But see, you may say, 40% Oxbridge admissions for 13% privately educated pupils still proves that the university admissions system is biased!
But the elephant in the room is achievement, and once you break down the statistics by grades achieved, any appearance of bias disappears. The most intriguing story here is actually how hard it is to get to the truth, as there seems to be a politically motivated campaign to blame universities for the situation, rather than study the facts. And the facts are the following. Oxbridge overwhelmingly prefers pupils who are among the top students in the country, and hence would be recruiting mostly from students who achieve three A’s at A-Level at the very least. In fact, candidates who can achieve three A*s at A-Level form the top 2% of A-Level pupils in the country, and these top candidates would likely have the sort of ability and work ethic that top universities are looking for.
So here are the real statistics you should consider when discussing Oxbridge admissions figures:
In 2016…
13% of those who completed three A-Levels were privately educated
33% of those who achieved AAA or better at A-Level were privately educated
39% of those who achieved A*A*A* (top 2% of candidates in the country) came from the independent sector.
This data is taken from the excellent Cambridge Assessment report:
Gill, T. (2017). Candidates awarded the A* grade at A level in 2016. Statistics Report Series No. 119. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge Assessment.
The most curious fact is that the same report compiled with 2012 data used to highlight the share of triple A*’s gained by independent schools explicitly (38% in the case of 2012 vs 39% in 2016), but that percentage was not mentioned in the 2016 report. In other ways, the content and setup of the report is identical to the 2012 report, but this calculation was omitted. Political interference? Thankfully, the raw data is included in the report, which is why we were able to derive the 39% figure for 2016 quite easily. But it is curious indeed that someone did not want to report this statistics too openly.
Interestingly, the percentage of the very top students (A*A*A* or better at A-Level) almost matches the share of successful Oxbridge applicants from independent schools 1:1. If we factor in A-Level results, in fact, there is absolutely no bias in admissions, and pupils from the independent sector are not over represented by any means.
In fact, they may even have a lower chance of being admitted to the same degree as a state school applicant, and here’s why. Independent school applicants are over represented in subjects that have less applicants per place and hence a higher admissions rate (Classics, Music, Modern Languages, History and Geography), while state school applicants are more likely to apply for the very toughest courses to get into (Economics and Management; Medicine; Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE); Law and Mathematics). Data published by Oxford shows that “state applicants’ success rate is affected by subject choice” with UK students applying “disproportionately for the most over-subscribed subjects”.
Between 2014 and 2016, on average, around a third (34 per cent) of UK state school applications were for the prestigious institution’s five most over-subscribed subjects (Economics and Management; Medicine; Philosophy, Politics and Economics (PPE); Law and Mathematics) compared to just over one in four (28 per cent) of private school applications. In addition, the university said, state school students apply in “disproportionately low numbers” for the least over-subscribed subjects (Classics, Music, Modern Languages, Chemistry and History). Between 2014 and 2016, almost a quarter (24 per cent) of applications from UK privately educated students were for these courses, compared to just 17 per cent of all state school applications.
So if independent school students are admitted in line with their share of high achieving A-Level students, but are actually more likely to apply for subjects that are easier to get into, could it be that an independent school pupil applying for a Natural Science degree at Cambridge if anything has a slightly lower chance of admission than a triple A* candidate from a state school? It is quite possible.
The most promising path to Oxbridge might indeed be to study at an outstanding and high achieving state Sixth Form college, where the teaching is strong enough to enable a bright child to achieve top results, and then apply for those degrees that tend to see less applicants per place. Both universities publish precise statistics on applicants per place and admissions rate by degree. Of course, you will want to apply for a subject you are actually interested in, if only to convince the interviewer that you have passion for the subject. But the good news is that it is not necessary to attend expensive independent schools to get into Oxbridge. What is necessary is to achieve the highest possible grades at A-Level. There is no way around this!